Healthcare Faces Deficit of 100,000 Workers by 2028

A nationwide shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers is anticipated by 2028, with some states facing projected surpluses or severe deficits between future supply and demand. 

The finding comes from Mercer, which examined projected changes to the U.S. healthcare labor market by 2028 for states and metro and micro statistical areas. 

If current U.S. workforce trends continue, the healthcare workforce is projected to reach 18.6 million by 2028, an increase of over 1.5 million from 2023. However, with demand expected to rise to 18.7 million, this still leaves a shortfall of more than 100,000 workers within five years. While this gap may not seem critical in absolute terms, it adds significant strain to a healthcare system already burdened by geographic and demographic disparities in access to care.

Mercer's projections were made using historical data through 2023, with labor demand forecasted by analyzing industry-level trends and the prevalence of each occupation within the industry. Supply projections were derived using a linear autoregressive model based on historical supply data for each occupation and geography.

Mercer's analysis of healthcare occupations reveals which states are expected to experience the most severe labor shortages and which might defy the national trend. 

5 states with greatest projected surplus of workers by 2028
1. California: 16,591
2. Pennsylvania: 16,036
3. Texas: 9,035
4. Minnesota: 8,614
5. Washington: 8,414

5 states with greatest projected deficit of workers by 2028
1. New York: -61,473
2. New Jersey: -17,769
3. Tennessee: -16,719 
4. Massachusetts: -12,329
5. Georgia: -11,308

When it comes to physicians, significant variation exists among states in workforce projections, with large shortages expected in Texas, California and New York, while Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Indiana anticipate surpluses. Many states fall just above or below meeting expected demand, which may obscure variations within specific occupations, particularly between specialists and primary care physicians.

California faces the greatest projected shortages of OB-GYNs and pediatricians by 2028, at -406 and -732, respectively. North Carolina leads the nation in projected family medicine physicians, looking down at a deficit of -1,394 by 2028. 

Access the Mercer report in full here.